35162 Notre Dame Ln

Middleburg, VA 20117

$2,289,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 6,396 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 216 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,304/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,004
• Tax + insurance: −$1,925
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $-11,319/mo
• Annual: $-135,829/yr
• Cap rate: 0.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.19%
• DSCR: 0.06
• 1% rule: 0.14%
• Cash to close: $640,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11k ($-136k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (87.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (85.6% below list).
• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.01M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $289k (87.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $245k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $229k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#174 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Banneker Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 172 students, 28% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 56% / reading 82%, grade A, #89 of 342 statewide, top 26%, 801 students, 17% FRL); Loudoun Valley High (math 65% / reading 97%, grade A, #52 of 319 statewide, top 17%, 1,178 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $2.29M implies a 780% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$393k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 87% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.