35162 Notre Dame Ln · Middleburg, VA 20117

$2,289,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 6,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 216 Days on market

Built 2012 11 ac lot $358/sqft · 18% below area Est $3146k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed for both refined entertaining and privacy, this incomparable property captures the essence of Virginia's hunt country with dramatic Blue Ridge Mountain views, mature oak trees, and bold streams creating a private sanctuary. The entertainer's paradise unfolds across 10.76 acre and 7,172 square feet of elegant living space featuring exquisite craftsmanship and seamless indoor-outdoor flow. Nature and luxury converge in perfect harmony with an expansive terrace leading to an opulent backyard oasis of expansive greenery and custom bar entertainment area. A screened-in veranda overlooks panoramic nature views. The luxurious primary suite offers unparalleled privacy with two generous closets, a freestanding soaking tub, and a private balcony overlooking the picturesque landscape. The open-concept kitchen features custom double-door walk-in cabinetry, uniting elegant design with effortless organization. Fresh well water flows through a comprehensive home filtration system with softener and reverse osmosis for drinking. Just minutes from historic Middleburg's charm, this exceptional estate presents an unparalleled opportunity to create a landmark family compound with no HOA restrictions and an additional building site available, enhancing future flexibility.

Key facts

• 10.76 acre
• Backyard oasis
• Expansive terrace

Tags

• BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• 10.76 ACRE
• EXPANSIVE TERRACE
• BACKYARD OASIS
• CUSTOM BAR ENTERTAINMENT AREA
• SCREENED-IN VERANDA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11k ($-136k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (87.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (85.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (87.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#174 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Banneker Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 172 students, 28% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 56% / reading 82%, grade A, #89 of 342 statewide, top 26%, 801 students, 17% FRL); Loudoun Valley High (math 65% / reading 97%, grade A, #52 of 319 statewide, top 17%, 1,178 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $245k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $229k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$393k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.01M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $2.29M implies a 780% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,440 (87.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 87% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.14% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.19%
• DSCR: 0.06
• GRM: 57.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,145,597
• List price: $2,289,000
• Delta: -27.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $524,621
• Equity at exit: $2,062,113

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $2,109,638
• Equity at exit: $4,447,024

Cash invested: $640,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20117

• Home prices YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 57.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,004
• Tax from tax record: −$972 /mo · $11,658/yr
• Insurance: −$954
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $-11,319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,632

Max offer price $289,440

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10,023	-5% $-10,671	+0% $-11,319	+5% $-11,967	+10% $-12,615
Rent	-10% $-11,580	-5% $-11,450	+0% $-11,319	+5% $-11,189	+10% $-11,058
Rate	-1.0pp $-10,166	-0.5pp $-10,737	base $-11,319	+0.5pp $-11,912	+1.0pp $-12,516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $572,250
• Closing costs: $68,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,289,000 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,289,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,289,000 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,289,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,289,000 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,289,000 Active 195 DOM
15. 2025-11-17
    listed $2,289,000 Active 1279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1279 chars)

    Designed for both refined entertaining and privacy, this incomparable property captures the essence of Virginia's hunt country with dramatic Blue Ridge Mountain views, mature oak trees, and bold streams creating a private sanctuary. The entertainer's paradise unfolds across 10.76 acre and 7,172 square feet of elegant living space featuring exquisite craftsmanship and seamless indoor-outdoor flow. Nature and luxury converge in perfect harmony with an expansive terrace leading to an opulent backyard oasis of expansive greenery and custom bar entertainment area. A screened-in veranda overlooks panoramic nature views. The luxurious primary suite offers unparalleled privacy with two generous closets, a freestanding soaking tub, and a private balcony overlooking the picturesque landscape. The open-concept kitchen features custom double-door walk-in cabinetry, uniting elegant design with effortless organization. Fresh well water flows through a comprehensive home filtration system with softener and reverse osmosis for drinking. Just minutes from historic Middleburg's charm, this exceptional estate presents an unparalleled opportunity to create a landmark family compound with no HOA restrictions and an additional building site available, enhancing future flexibility.

16. 2025-11-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1279 chars)

    Designed for both refined entertaining and privacy, this incomparable property captures the essence of Virginia's hunt country with dramatic Blue Ridge Mountain views, mature oak trees, and bold streams creating a private sanctuary. The entertainer's paradise unfolds across 10.76 acre and 7,172 square feet of elegant living space featuring exquisite craftsmanship and seamless indoor-outdoor flow. Nature and luxury converge in perfect harmony with an expansive terrace leading to an opulent backyard oasis of expansive greenery and custom bar entertainment area. A screened-in veranda overlooks panoramic nature views. The luxurious primary suite offers unparalleled privacy with two generous closets, a freestanding soaking tub, and a private balcony overlooking the picturesque landscape. The open-concept kitchen features custom double-door walk-in cabinetry, uniting elegant design with effortless organization. Fresh well water flows through a comprehensive home filtration system with softener and reverse osmosis for drinking. Just minutes from historic Middleburg's charm, this exceptional estate presents an unparalleled opportunity to create a landmark family compound with no HOA restrictions and an additional building site available, enhancing future flexibility.

17. 2025-10-08
    listed $2,290,000 Active
18. 2025-09-23
    historical
19. 2025-08-15
    listed $2,290,000 Active
20. 2025-05-09
    historical
21. 2025-04-24
    listed $3,250,000 Active
22. 2025-02-03
    historical
23. 2024-11-09
    listed $2,790,000 Active
24. 2004-04-20
    soldstatus $260,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,658 · $972/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,770 · $1,564/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,111/yr (+$593/mo · 61.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$128,220
• − Property taxes: −$11,658
• − Insurance: −$11,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,172
• − Management: −$3,172
• − Depreciation: −$66,589
• Taxable loss: −$184,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44,306
• After-tax cash flow: $-91,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #5392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,248

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 36.93%
• Current HPI: 375.846
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+780.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $2,289,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $2,290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $2,290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-24 Listed $3,250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-09 Listed $2,790,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,658 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.