4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,877 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,148/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,681
Tax + insurance
−$534
HOA
−$90
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$451
Net cashflow
$-608/mo
Annual
$-7,298/yr
Cap rate
4.02%
Cash-on-cash
-8.13%
DSCR
0.64
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$89,744
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $321k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-608 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (27.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (33.0% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $215k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Cottonwood Creek El (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 686 students, 45% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1501 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-N32VHM0AJYRFKN
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29