3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,048 sqft ·
Built 1962
· Other
· Pending
· 169 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,800/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$165
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$378
Net cashflow
$366/mo
Annual
$4,387/yr
Cap rate
8.88%
Cash-on-cash
9.22%
DSCR
1.41
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#73 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: commute C-, amenities D+, schools F.
Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-N34SNG8GDXFGAV
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29