16002 Open Pond Rd

Lockhart, AL 36442

$129,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 1208 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $104/mo
• Annual: $1,243/yr
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (2.4% below list).
• It's been on market 1208 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#183 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 1208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Paint — Peeling paint indicates significant wear.
• Major: Siding — Weathered siding suggests need for replacement.
• Major: Flooring — Worn carpet needs replacement or refinishing.
• Major: Windows — Old windows may need replacement for energy efficiency and appearance.
• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Dated but not damaged, could be refinished or replaced.
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Functional but dated, could be updated with new fixtures.