16002 Open Pond Rd · Lockhart, AL 36442

$129,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Manufactured · 1206 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition 1.70 ac lot ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 4 bedroom/ 2 bath mobile home (includes furniture) on 1.7 +/- acres. Home has an Electric Heat Pump that includes Heating and Air. 20 x 22 Metal Storage Building, 8 x14 Front Porch & 10 x 30 Covered Back Porch Included! Additional Land Available.

Key facts

• 1.7 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 1205 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; 1,572 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Level topography; Storage structure on the property; Approximately 1.7 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Electric water heater; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#183 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1206 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $28,918
• Equity at exit: $65,195

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $85,728
• Equity at exit: $106,464

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36442

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $148	+0% $104	+5% $59	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $54	+0% $104	+5% $153	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $136	base $104	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 1206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 1205 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 1204 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 1203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 1202 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 1200 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 1199 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 1196 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 1195 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 1194 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 1193 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 1190 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 1189 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 1188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 1187 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 1186 DOM
17. 2026-02-25
    price $129,000
18. 2025-10-21
    status Active
19. 2025-09-18
    status Active
20. 2025-07-23
    status Active
21. 2024-01-26
    status Active
22. 2023-08-24
    price $139,000
23. 2023-01-25
    listed $269,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$207
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations, focusing on painting, updating fixtures, and replacing worn materials to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Peeling paint indicates significant wear.
• Major Siding — Weathered siding suggests need for replacement.
• Major Flooring — Worn carpet needs replacement or refinishing.
• Major Windows — Old windows may need replacement for energy efficiency and appearance.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated but not damaged, could be refinished or replaced.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Functional but dated, could be updated with new fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace old windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal.
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets modernize the kitchen and add value.
• Both Replace worn carpet — New carpet improves comfort and adds value.
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance bathroom aesthetics and add value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Peeling paint indicates significant wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Weathered siding suggests need for replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn carpet needs replacement or refinishing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old windows may need replacement for energy efficiency and appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Dated but not damaged, could be refinished or replaced.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Functional but dated, could be updated with new fixtures.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$61,000–206,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace old windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets modernize the kitchen and add value. ↑
• Both Replace worn carpet — New carpet improves comfort and adds value. ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance bathroom aesthetics and add value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County
• NCES district ID: 0100930
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,213
• Composite: 32.13/100
• National rank: #5797
• State rank: #32 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #15412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 284
• Population (ZIP): 3,615

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,007 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,983 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 33,437 · -9.6%
• By 2075: 29,753 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 25,109 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.4) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.3pp · 2024: -72.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.4 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+58.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Current HPI: 182.2844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-52.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $129,000 CAOR
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — CAOR
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — CAOR
• 2025-07-23 Relisted — CAOR
• 2024-01-26 Relisted — CAOR
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $139,000 CAOR
• 2023-01-25 Listed $269,000 CAOR