237 Forgotten Trl

Lexington, SC 29072

$227,800D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,195
• Tax + insurance: −$380
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-105/mo
• Annual: $-1,256/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $63,784

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $228k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#8 in SC, #1,502 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Murray Elementary (math 73% / reading 70%, grade A-, #32 of 597 statewide, top 5%, 901 students, 12% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 43% / reading 57%, grade C, #38 of 229 statewide, top 17%, 839 students, 19% FRL); Lexington High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #23 of 196 statewide, top 11%, 2,410 students, 17% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.