5404 Lopez Ln

Siesta Shores, TX 78076

$32,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $684/mo
• Annual: $8,211/yr
• Cap rate: 31.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.23%
• DSCR: 5.01
• 1% rule: 3.54%
• Cash to close: $9,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($225 loan paydown + $848 appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,334 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.