5404 Lopez Ln · Siesta Shores, TX 78076

$32,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1996 5,000 sqft lot $21/sqft · 86% below area ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bed | 2 Bath | Investor Opportunity This 1,572 sq. ft. property sits on a 5,000 sq. ft. lot and offers strong potential for the right buyer. The layout lends itself well to a full renovation. Cash purchase only. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,334 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($225 loan paydown + $848 appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.23%
• DSCR: 5.01
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,885
• List price: $32,500
• Delta: -80.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $46,845
• Equity at exit: $13,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.1%
• Equity multiple: 12.71×
• Total profit: $106,560
• Equity at exit: $20,887

Cash invested: $9,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $284

Max offer price $32,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,125
• Closing costs: $975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on marketlisting id $32,500 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-02-23
    price $45,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    2 Bed | 2 Bath | Investor Opportunity This 1,572 sq. ft. property sits on a 5,000 sq. ft. lot and offers strong potential for the right buyer. The layout lends itself well to a full renovation. Cash purchase only. Sold AS-IS.

16. 2026-01-06
    listed $49,900 Active 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    2 Bed | 2 Bath | Investor Opportunity This 1,572 sq. ft. property sits on a 5,000 sq. ft. lot and offers strong potential for the right buyer. The layout lends itself well to a full renovation. Cash purchase only. Sold AS-IS.

17. 2025-01-24
    price $60,000
18. 2024-11-30
    price $72,000
19. 2024-10-21
    listed $80,000 Active
20. 2024-09-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,821
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$945
• Taxable income: $8,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,963
• After-tax cash flow: $6,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Siesta Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1334
• US rank: #22988

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Siesta Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $45,000 LAOR
• 2026-01-06 Listed $49,900 LAOR
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $60,000 LAOR
• 2024-11-30 Price Changed $72,000 LAOR
• 2024-10-21 Listed $80,000 LAOR
• 2024-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,971 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.