1030 Forest Heights St

Sutherlin, OR 97479

$239,900F

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,438 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,119
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-754/mo
• Annual: $-9,042/yr
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $113,137

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-754 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (7.0% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Sutherlin Primary School (296 students, 67% FRL); Sutherlin Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 289 students, 65% FRL); Sutherlin High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 361 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 55% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.