3411 S Camino Seco -- #431

Tucson, AZ 85730

$80,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,408/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$424
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$699
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-146/mo
• Annual: $-1,752/yr
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.73%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $22,652

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $81k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $60k (26.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $60k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $559 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ford Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 201 students, 72% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Santa Rita High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 392 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 50% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?