3411 S Camino Seco -- #431 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$80,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 216 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1979 Good condition $53/sqft · 41% below area Est $137k · 41% under $699/mo HOA · 49% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.7

Listing remarks MLS

Plenty of living space. All appliances are included along with washer and dryer. The stove is a Frigidaire with conduction top and convection oven. Whirlpool dishwasher. Refrigerator is a 3 door stainless steel with water dispenser. Washer and dryer located in laundry area are a matching Whirlpool set top load on the washer. Appliances new in 2024. There is a reverse osmosis. Led lighting. New water heater installed in 2025, New plumbing in 2024. A/C has been serviced. Outside paint was done in 2025. Inside has been painted. New floor vents throughout. New laminate flooring throughout. All kitchen cabinet doors were replaced. New thermostat is installed with body temperature change when entering a room to your liking. New vanities were installed in both bathrooms along with new light fixtures. Guest bedroom has a walk-in closet. All rooms have blackout curtains and will stay. Foyer entrance with coat closet and mirrored closet doors. The primary bedroom has mirrored doors on the closet. The Arizona Room has windows and 2 entrances; the back entrance leads to the back yard which has a fence for your dog. The carport by the storage room has an outlet that is wired for an electric car. The storage room comes with electricity. Storm windows throughout except for the window above the kitchen sink. The patio door is double pane also. The hallway leading to the two bedrooms has built in storage along with a countertop. The primary en-suite has a walk-in shower. The vanity is a double sink. The bathroom is of good size.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Whirlpool dishwasher
• Led lighting

Tags

• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• WHIRLPOOL DISHWASHER
• REVERSE OSMOSIS
• LED LIGHTING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $81k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $63k (22.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ford Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 201 students, 72% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Santa Rita High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 392 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $559 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,052 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,459
• List price: $80,900
• Delta: -41.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3701 S Cindy Ln	1.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	0mo	$221,000	$141	56
3781 S Peggy Ln	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	10mo	$274,000	$175	53
3750 S Cindy Ln	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	18mo	$235,000	$150	46
3768 S Andrew Johnson Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-19%)	10mo	$212,500	$170	43
3761 S Peggy Ln	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-15%)	8mo	$209,000	$161	33
3710 S Cindy Ln	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-19%)	13mo	$245,000	$196	29
3701 S Peggy Ln	1.01mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-19%)	18mo	$259,000	$208	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-24,723
• Equity at exit: $12,062

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.03×
• Total profit: $-46,079
• Equity at exit: $6,995

Cash invested: $22,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active
• Median asking: $66,450 ($44/sqft)
• Median days on market: 201 d
• This list price: 79% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +103.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$424
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$101 /mo · $1,214/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$699
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $63,052

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-95	+0% $-123	+5% $-151	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-180	+0% $-123	+5% $-67	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-103	base $-123	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,225
• Closing costs: $2,427
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,795	$1.20	3d	1	0.21mi
8632 E Mormon Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	9d	1	0.38mi
3292 S Kristina Park Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,900	$1.15	82d	1	0.42mi
8467 E Shasta Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,720	$1.06	74d	1	0.57mi
4052 S Ferris Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,125	$1.27	110d	1	0.57mi
8721 E Perry Park Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,995	$1.26	80d	1	0.58mi
2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,500	$1.12	139d	1	0.62mi
2620 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1200	$795	$0.66	0d	1	0.63mi
8340 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,945	$1.51	6d	1	0.64mi
9202 E 39th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,650	$0.95	119d	1	0.65mi
8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,830	$1.43	111d	1	0.70mi
2550 S Perillo Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	9d	1	0.75mi
2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,299	$0.90	119d	1	0.78mi
8905 E Pantano Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2013	$1,950	$0.97	99d	1	0.78mi
4275 S Mayberry Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,850	$1.11	139d	1	0.79mi
8940 E Pine Valley Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1435	$1,681	$1.17	2d	1	0.81mi
2501 S Pantano Pkwy Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,500	$1.30	66d	1	0.81mi
4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	139d	1	0.82mi
8301 E Wildcat Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,900	$1.62	9d	1	0.85mi
8828 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,100	$1.21	5d	1	0.85mi
9020 E Pantano Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,999	$1.15	63d	1	0.87mi
8737 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,095	$1.51	139d	1	0.88mi
8823 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,795	$1.30	66d	1	0.89mi
3434 S Manitoba Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,660	$1.40	5d	1	0.90mi
8749 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,650	$1.13	9d	1	0.90mi
8821 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,795	$1.23	9d	1	0.90mi
9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	99d	1	0.92mi
2342 S Via de Dos Arroyos Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,795	$1.11	139d	1	0.92mi
3715 S Escalante Oasis Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1601	$1,845	$1.15	78d	1	0.93mi
4433 S Sunrise Bluff Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	119d	1	0.93mi
8811 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2212	$1,999	$0.90	87d	1	0.94mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,724	$1.99	0d	36	0.94mi
2217 S Oak Park Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1631	$3,000	$1.84	9d	1	0.95mi
8763 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	63d	1	0.96mi
8807 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2022	$1,850	$0.91	3d	1	0.96mi
9530 E 42nd St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,895	$1.48	87d	1	0.96mi
8315 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1389	$2,095	$1.51	9d	3	0.97mi
8804 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2013	$2,200	$1.09	71d	1	0.97mi
2494 S Clovis Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,095	$1.36	139d	1	0.97mi
8803 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,785	$1.22	9d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail $699/mo · $8,388/yr

• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $80,900 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $80,900 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $80,900 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $80,900 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $80,900 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $80,900 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $80,900 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $80,900 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $80,900 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $80,900 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $80,900 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $80,900 Active 205 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $80,900 Active 204 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $80,900 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $80,900 Active 197 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $80,900 Active 196 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $80,900 Active 193 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $80,900 Active 191 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $80,900 Active 190 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $80,900 Active 189 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $80,900 Active 188 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $80,900 Active 187 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $80,900 Active 186 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $80,900 Active 185 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $80,900 Active 184 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $80,900 Active 183 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $80,900 Active 182 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $80,900 Active 181 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $80,900 Active 180 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $80,900 Active 179 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $80,900 Active 178 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $80,900 Active 177 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $80,900 Active 176 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $80,900 Active 175 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $80,900 Active 174 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    price $80,900 Active 173 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $90,000 Active 173 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $90,000 Active 172 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 171 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 170 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 169 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $90,000 Active 168 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 167 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 166 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 165 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 162 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 161 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 160 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $90,000 Active 159 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $90,000 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,532
• − Property taxes: −$1,214
• − Insurance: −$404
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − HOA: −$8,388
• − Depreciation: −$2,353
• Taxable loss: −$2,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$579
• After-tax cash flow: $-901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,680–$23,040 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates and improvements, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Replace flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ford Elementary F AZ #687/1,109 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Secrist Middle School F AZ #194/218 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Santa Rita High School F AZ #358/381 Nat'l #16,644/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $90,000 ARMLS