30000 Kasson Rd 2h27 Sunset Dr

Tracy, CA 95304

$199,999C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,408/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $420/mo
• Annual: $5,039/yr
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#496 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• New Jerusalem Elementary (rural): math 15% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #437 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Jerusalem Elementary (23 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 19900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $200k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.6% in Tracy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.