30000 Kasson Rd 2h27 Sunset Dr · Manteca, CA 95304

$199,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1977 4,800 sqft lot Est $195k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Whimsical & Cozy home in the San Joaquin River Club. A gardeners paradise! Large Open Dining Rm / Living Rm Combo w/wood burning Fireplace. Kitchen Features, Fridge, Electric Stove / Oven + Built-In Microwave. Washer & Dryer Stay in Lg Laundry Rm. Covered enclosed Florida Rm. Corner Lot

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Unique community
• 4,800 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• MAINTAINED SEPTIC SYSTEM
• EXISTING WATER SOFTENER
• UNIQUE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in San Joaquin County (Tracy, CA 95304)
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with clubhouse; Annual association fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space; Attached and detached parking; converted garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric: other; Irrigation: other; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 1977; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Low-maintenance lot; Pergola; Shed(s) / additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast area and kitchen/family room combo; Dining/family and dining/living combos; Living room with additional features; One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included, located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• New Jerusalem Elementary (rural): math 15% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #437 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Jerusalem Elementary (23 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 19900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $200k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $199,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,300
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30000 Kasson Rd Unit 2k17	0.28mi	2/1.5	900 (0%)	10mo	$194,926	$217	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,564
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $29,993
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95304

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $558	-5% $489	+0% $420	+5% $351	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $325	+0% $420	+5% $515	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $471	base $420	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,999 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on marketlisting id $199,999 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $285,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2025-04-25
    historical $1,000
19. 2024-07-29
    listed $1,000
20. 2017-07-07
    soldstatus $128,000 Sold 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Whimsical & Cozy home in the San Joaquin River Club. A gardeners paradise! Large Open Dining Rm / Living Rm Combo w/wood burning Fireplace. Kitchen Features, Fridge, Electric Stove / Oven + Built-In Microwave. Washer & Dryer Stay in Lg Laundry Rm. Covered enclosed Florida Rm. Corner Lot

21. 2017-06-20
    status Pending 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Whimsical & Cozy home in the San Joaquin River Club. A gardeners paradise! Large Open Dining Rm / Living Rm Combo w/wood burning Fireplace. Kitchen Features, Fridge, Electric Stove / Oven + Built-In Microwave. Washer & Dryer Stay in Lg Laundry Rm. Covered enclosed Florida Rm. Corner Lot

22. 2017-05-03
    status Pending - Show for Backups 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Whimsical & Cozy home in the San Joaquin River Club. A gardeners paradise! Large Open Dining Rm / Living Rm Combo w/wood burning Fireplace. Kitchen Features, Fridge, Electric Stove / Oven + Built-In Microwave. Washer & Dryer Stay in Lg Laundry Rm. Covered enclosed Florida Rm. Corner Lot

23. 2017-03-23
    listed $128,000 New 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Whimsical & Cozy home in the San Joaquin River Club. A gardeners paradise! Large Open Dining Rm / Living Rm Combo w/wood burning Fireplace. Kitchen Features, Fridge, Electric Stove / Oven + Built-In Microwave. Washer & Dryer Stay in Lg Laundry Rm. Covered enclosed Florida Rm. Corner Lot

24. 2015-02-17
    historical
25. 2009-10-27
    historical
26. 2009-08-13
    listed New
27. 2006-02-21
    historical
28. 1987-10-31
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$492
• After-tax cash flow: $4,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Jerusalem Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0627030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,288
• Composite: 20.02/100
• National rank: #8659
• State rank: #437 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,841
• Household income: $115,007
• Rent vs Own: 39.9% rent · 60.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 347.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 22% Asian 13% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Russian 10% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 8% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -326.63%
• Current HPI: 329.6864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-83.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-25 Rental Removed $1,000 REDFIN
• 2024-07-29 Listed for Rent $1,000 REDFIN
• 2017-07-07 Sold (MLS) $128,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-06-20 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-05-03 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-03-23 Listed $128,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-02-17 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2009-10-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2009-08-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-02-21 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1987-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records