4156 Falcon Ter

Mount Pocono, PA 18466

$245,000C-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 979 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Pending · 168 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,433/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$143
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,353/yr
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.43%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in Mount Pocono — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.