4156 Falcon Ter · Mount Pocono, PA 18466

$245,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 979 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1986 0.60 ac lot $143/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Mother/Daughter on a large, 0.6 acre lot. Chalet style home is on the cul-de-sac and is close to the main gate. Location is in the amenity filled, Pocono Country Place, a gaated community. Six Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms constructed with in-law quarters and a private enterance on the first floor. There is plenty of room for everyone and entertaining! Bring your imagination and embrace the potential to make this gem your dream house. Easy access to route 80, NYC, Kalahari Resort, Sanofi, Hospitals, Pocono Premium Outlets, fine dining, shopping, hiking/mountain climbing, fishing, hunting, Delaware Water Gap, Bushkill Falls, Camleback Ski Mountain, Mount Airy Casino, Pocono Raceway and so much mo

Key facts

• Large lot
• Private entrance
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• CUL-DE-SAC
• IN-LAW QUARTERS
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• AMENITY FILLED COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO ROUTE 80

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in Mount Pocono — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.43%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $33,818
• Equity at exit: $101,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $113,528
• Equity at exit: $149,766

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,351/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-20
   price $245,000
3. 2025-09-27
   listed $270,000 Active
4. 2023-09-12
   soldstatus $189,500
5. 2023-09-08
   soldstatus $189,500 Closed
6. 2023-08-15
   status Active
7. 2023-08-15
   price $210,000
8. 2023-08-09
   historical
9. 2023-07-21
   status Active
10. 2023-05-05
    listed $222,000 Active
11. 2019-05-22
    soldstatus $117,000
12. 2019-05-16
    soldstatus $117,000
13. 2019-05-16
    soldstatus $117,000
14. 2018-12-11
    listed $117,000
15. 2018-12-11
    listed $117,000
16. 2018-04-07
    listed $117,000
17. 2015-06-08
    listed $149,000
18. 2014-07-23
    listed $149,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,351 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$760/yr (+$63/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,351
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$1,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$389
• After-tax cash flow: $2,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Pocono

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #3166

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+64.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $245,000 PMAR
• 2025-09-27 Listed $270,000 PMAR
• 2023-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $189,500 Public Records
• 2023-09-08 Sold (MLS) $189,500 PMAR
• 2023-08-15 Relisted — PMAR
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $210,000 PMAR
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — PMAR
• 2023-07-21 Relisted — PMAR
• 2023-05-05 Listed $222,000 PMAR
• 2019-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-16 Sold (MLS) $117,000 PMAR
• 2019-05-16 Sold (MLS) $117,000 GLVRMLS
• 2018-12-11 Listed $117,000 PMAR
• 2018-12-11 Listed $117,000 GLVRMLS
• 2018-04-07 Listed $117,000 PMAR
• 2015-06-08 Listed $149,000 PMAR
• 2014-07-23 Listed $149,000 PMAR

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,351 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.