3419 Hillman St

Youngstown, OH 44507

$67,900B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,157/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $495/mo
• Annual: $5,940/yr
• Cap rate: 15.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.24%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $19,012

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $562 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 34y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $68k implies a 466% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 6.3% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,157/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($26k/yr) (locally 17% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.