14322 Bonnie Girls Way

Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$242,500D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,791/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-107/mo
• Annual: $-1,283/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $67,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (26.1% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $242k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?