14322 Bonnie Girls Way · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$242,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1996 2.23 ac lot $217/sqft · at area comps Est $251k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this immaculate, move-in ready beauty perfectly situated on 2.23 peaceful acres! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,118 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space, combining cozy comfort with everyday functionality. Step inside to a light and bright interior filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space, making it perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and workspace, ideal for preparing meals with ease. The private primary suite features a serene retreat with an en suite bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, you'll fall in love with the expansive 2.23-acre lot--offering endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, a workshop, or simply enjoying the quiet. Whether you're sipping coffee on the porch or watching the sunset over your property, you'll appreciate the peace and privacy this home provides. Call today to schedule your own private showing appointment.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Peaceful acres
• Outdoor living

Tags

• PEACEFUL ACRES
• LIGHT AND BRIGHT INTERIOR
• AMPLE CABINETRY AND WORKSPACE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $242k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,131 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,564
• List price: $242,500
• Delta: -3.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $110,097
• Equity at exit: $202,402

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $326,269
• Equity at exit: $420,455

Cash invested: $67,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,792/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,927

Max offer price $223,612

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,625
• Closing costs: $7,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $242,500 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $242,500 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-08
   status Active 1108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

   Welcome home to this immaculate, move-in ready beauty perfectly situated on 2.23 peaceful acres! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,118 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space, combining cozy comfort with everyday functionality. Step inside to a light and bright interior filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space, making it perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and workspace, ideal for preparing meals with ease. The private primary suite features a serene retreat with an en suite bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, you'll fall in love with the expansive 2.23-acre lot--offering endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, a workshop, or simply enjoying the quiet. Whether you're sipping coffee on the porch or watching the sunset over your property, you'll appreciate the peace and privacy this home provides. Call today to schedule your own private showing appointment.

9. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 1108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

   Welcome home to this immaculate, move-in ready beauty perfectly situated on 2.23 peaceful acres! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,118 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space, combining cozy comfort with everyday functionality. Step inside to a light and bright interior filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space, making it perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and workspace, ideal for preparing meals with ease. The private primary suite features a serene retreat with an en suite bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, you'll fall in love with the expansive 2.23-acre lot--offering endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, a workshop, or simply enjoying the quiet. Whether you're sipping coffee on the porch or watching the sunset over your property, you'll appreciate the peace and privacy this home provides. Call today to schedule your own private showing appointment.

10. 2026-04-22
    listed $245,000 Active 1108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

    Welcome home to this immaculate, move-in ready beauty perfectly situated on 2.23 peaceful acres! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,118 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space, combining cozy comfort with everyday functionality. Step inside to a light and bright interior filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space, making it perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and workspace, ideal for preparing meals with ease. The private primary suite features a serene retreat with an en suite bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, you'll fall in love with the expansive 2.23-acre lot--offering endless possibilities for outdoor living, gardening, a workshop, or simply enjoying the quiet. Whether you're sipping coffee on the porch or watching the sunset over your property, you'll appreciate the peace and privacy this home provides. Call today to schedule your own private showing appointment.

11. 2022-02-03
    price $1,495
12. 2021-12-14
    historical
13. 2001-08-13
    listed $88,500
14. 1999-06-01
    soldstatus $77,500
15. 1996-03-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,792 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,584
• − Property taxes: −$1,792
• − Insurance: −$1,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$7,055
• Taxable loss: −$5,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,341
• After-tax cash flow: $58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2622.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $245,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,495 RENT.
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2001-08-13 Listed $88,500 CPARMLS
• 1999-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 1996-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,792 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.