32 Lawrence St

Watervliet, NY 12189

$329,999F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-1,317/mo
• Annual: $-15,802/yr
• Cap rate: 1.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.10%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.35%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (70.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (65.2% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (70.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#51 in NY, #786 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• North Colonie CSD (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #102 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Latham Ridge School (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B+, #580 of 2,108 statewide, top 28%, 455 students, 23% FRL); Shaker High School (math 98% / reading 93%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 2,018 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 5.9% in Watervliet — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.