114 Deer St

Dunkirk, NY 14048

$85,000A-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,360 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 279 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $370/mo
• Annual: $4,442/yr
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.66%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunkirk Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,945 of 2,108 statewide, top 94%, 588 students, 73% FRL); Dunkirk Senior High School (math 87%, 882 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dunkirk City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 5586% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $85k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.