114 Deer St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$85,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1910 3,000 sqft lot $36/sqft · 33% below area Est $126k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-Story Starter Home – Priced to Sell! Discover your perfect affordable home in this delightful 2-story gem, ideally located within walking distance to Lake Erie, the marina, the boardwalk, and more! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom residence is packed with features to suit your lifestyle. Step inside to find a spacious formal dining room, perfect for gatherings, and a convenient 1st-floor bedroom and a 1st floor laundry room for easy living. The open front porch welcomes you to relax and enjoy direct views of evening sunsets. Outside, a partially fenced-in yard offers space for play or pets, complemented by low-maintenance vinyl siding and a brand-new roof installed in 2023.Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a prime location at an unbeatable price! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open front porch
• 3,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1910

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE ERIE
• SPACIOUS FORMAL DINING ROOM
• 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• PARTIALLY FENCED-IN YARD
• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunkirk Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,945 of 2,108 statewide, top 94%, 588 students, 73% FRL); Dunkirk Senior High School (math 87%, 882 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dunkirk City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 5586% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $85k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.66%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,140
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -32.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Armadillo St	0.53mi	5/1.5	2,400 (+2%)	16mo	$85,000	$35	58
15 E Fifth St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,046 (-13%)	3mo	$170,000	$83	50
23 N Beagle St	0.31mi	6/1.5 (+1)	2,063 (-13%)	9mo	$150,000	$73	50
47 Ruggles St	0.36mi	4/1.0 (-1)	2,149 (-9%)	15mo	$6,000	$3	47
417 Robin St	0.66mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,132 (-10%)	3mo	$128,000	$60	43
48 W 5th St	0.57mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,117 (-10%)	16mo	$25,000	$12	36
170 King St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,524 (+7%)	18mo	$50,000	$20	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $42,845
• Equity at exit: $47,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $109,349
• Equity at exit: $82,222

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $739

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $394	+0% $370	+5% $346	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $275	-5% $322	+0% $370	+5% $418	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $392	base $370	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 267 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 266 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 259 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 258 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $1,495
18. 2026-04-30
    status Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Charming 2-Story Starter Home – Priced to Sell! Discover your perfect affordable home in this delightful 2-story gem, ideally located within walking distance to Lake Erie, the marina, the boardwalk, and more! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom residence is packed with features to suit your lifestyle. Step inside to find a spacious formal dining room, perfect for gatherings, and a convenient 1st-floor bedroom and a 1st floor laundry room for easy living. The open front porch welcomes you to relax and enjoy direct views of evening sunsets. Outside, a partially fenced-in yard offers space for play or pets, complemented by low-maintenance vinyl siding and a brand-new roof installed in 2023.Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a prime location at an unbeatable price! Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-04-30
    price $85,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Charming 2-Story Starter Home – Priced to Sell! Discover your perfect affordable home in this delightful 2-story gem, ideally located within walking distance to Lake Erie, the marina, the boardwalk, and more! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom residence is packed with features to suit your lifestyle. Step inside to find a spacious formal dining room, perfect for gatherings, and a convenient 1st-floor bedroom and a 1st floor laundry room for easy living. The open front porch welcomes you to relax and enjoy direct views of evening sunsets. Outside, a partially fenced-in yard offers space for play or pets, complemented by low-maintenance vinyl siding and a brand-new roof installed in 2023.Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a prime location at an unbeatable price! Schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Charming 2-Story Starter Home – Priced to Sell! Discover your perfect affordable home in this delightful 2-story gem, ideally located within walking distance to Lake Erie, the marina, the boardwalk, and more! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom residence is packed with features to suit your lifestyle. Step inside to find a spacious formal dining room, perfect for gatherings, and a convenient 1st-floor bedroom and a 1st floor laundry room for easy living. The open front porch welcomes you to relax and enjoy direct views of evening sunsets. Outside, a partially fenced-in yard offers space for play or pets, complemented by low-maintenance vinyl siding and a brand-new roof installed in 2023.Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a prime location at an unbeatable price! Schedule your showing today!

21. 2025-08-18
    listed $99,900 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Charming 2-Story Starter Home – Priced to Sell! Discover your perfect affordable home in this delightful 2-story gem, ideally located within walking distance to Lake Erie, the marina, the boardwalk, and more! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom residence is packed with features to suit your lifestyle. Step inside to find a spacious formal dining room, perfect for gatherings, and a convenient 1st-floor bedroom and a 1st floor laundry room for easy living. The open front porch welcomes you to relax and enjoy direct views of evening sunsets. Outside, a partially fenced-in yard offers space for play or pets, complemented by low-maintenance vinyl siding and a brand-new roof installed in 2023.Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a prime location at an unbeatable price! Schedule your showing today!

22. 2020-08-12
    status Active 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Large 5 bedroom home near the lake. Low taxes, reasonably priced.

23. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus $34,000 Closed Sale or Rented 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Large 5 bedroom home near the lake. Low taxes, reasonably priced.

24. 2020-06-07
    historical 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Large 5 bedroom home near the lake. Low taxes, reasonably priced.

25. 2020-04-08
    price $34,000 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Large 5 bedroom home near the lake. Low taxes, reasonably priced.

26. 2019-12-06
    listed $38,000 Active 65-char remark

    Show marketing remark (65 chars)

    Large 5 bedroom home near the lake. Low taxes, reasonably priced.

27. 2008-01-15
    listed $19,900
28. 1994-04-07
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$102/yr (+$8/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$787
• After-tax cash flow: $3,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-90.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed for Rent $1,495 BUILDIUM
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-08-12 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2020-08-12 Sold (MLS) $34,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-06-07 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2020-04-08 Price Changed $34,000 UNYREIS
• 2019-12-06 Listed $38,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-01-15 Listed $19,900 UNYREIS
• 1994-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.