199 Saint James Church Rd

Arrington, VA 22967

$44,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $803/mo
• Annual: $9,630/yr
• Cap rate: 28.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.17%
• DSCR: 4.48
• 1% rule: 3.11%
• Cash to close: $12,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#221 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tye River Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 355 students, 79% FRL); Nelson Middle (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 78% FRL); Nelson County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 517 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.