199 Saint James Church Rd · Arrington, VA 22967

$44,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 2.00 ac lot $35/sqft · 79% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in the heart of Nelson County! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 2 private acres is ready for a full renovation and priced accordingly. Tucked away in a peaceful, wooded setting, this property offers the kind of privacy and potential that’s getting harder to find. Located just minutes from Wintergreen Resort, breweries, hiking trails, and everything the Blue Ridge Mountains have to offer, this property is a prime candidate for a vacation rental, weekend retreat, or resale project. Bring your crew and vision—this home requires significant work but offers strong upside for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to flip, hold, or create your own mountain e

Key facts

• Private acres
• Blue ridge mountains
• Hiking trails

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• PEACEFUL WOODED SETTING
• HIKING TRAILS
• BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported (1,248); Property listed as resale

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Community/Coop water; Shared well
• Home design: Single-story home; Attached property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Built as actual year (year built details noted)
• Exterior features: Approximately 2-acre lot; Zoned RR

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (half bath on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Tub and shower in full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#221 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tye River Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 355 students, 79% FRL); Nelson Middle (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 78% FRL); Nelson County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 517 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,340 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.17%
• DSCR: 4.48
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,413
• List price: $44,000
• Delta: -79.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $75,082
• Equity at exit: $39,639

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.0%
• Equity multiple: 15.69×
• Total profit: $180,920
• Equity at exit: $85,482

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22967

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $356/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $353

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $827	-5% $815	+0% $803	+5% $790	+10% $778
Rent	-10% $694	-5% $748	+0% $803	+5% $857	+10% $911
Rate	-1.0pp $825	-0.5pp $814	base $803	+0.5pp $791	+1.0pp $780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $44,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $44,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $44,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $44,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $44,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 766-char remark
11. 2026-05-12
    listed $48,999 Active 766-char remark
12. 2026-05-11
    historical
13. 2026-05-04
    listed $69,900 Active
14. 2008-04-22
    historical
15. 2007-10-20
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $361 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$356
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $9,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,274
• After-tax cash flow: $7,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nelson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102580
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 44.37/100
• National rank: #2818
• State rank: #92 of 131 in VA

Livability — Arrington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #7329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,647

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,115 people
• By 2030: 13,563 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 12,384 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 11,481 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,103 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 8,788 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.8% · R 53.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+5.2 2016: R+5.7 2012: D+2.8 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.35%
• Current HPI: 294.3077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-26.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-26 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $44,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $48,999 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $69,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-04-22 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2007-10-20 Listed $59,900 CAAR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2019): $356 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.