454 Elderville Peatown Rd

Lakeport, TX 75603

$149,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 2008 · Manufactured · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $85/mo
• Annual: $1,020/yr
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.6% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#406 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Longview ISD (urban): math 49% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #244 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ned E Williams El (math 41% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 377 students, 93% FRL, charter); Foster Middle (math 46% / reading 52%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 809 students, 84% FRL, charter); Longview H S (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,170 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.