454 Elderville Peatown Rd · Lakeport, TX 75603

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2008

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Investor Special * * * 3 Bedrooms 2 Baths, the potential is endless for your imagination. This property is in a secluded & shaded environment and is ready to be positioned into your next starter home, your next investment to add to your rental portfolio or just a cozy vacation getaway for you and your family. A little tender loving care is all it needs to get your homeownership adventure on the way!

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Remodeled kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SPACIOUS 0.50-ACRE LOT
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ABUNDANCE OF NATURAL LIGHT
• UPDATED FINISHES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Residential mobile (manufactured) home
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#406 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Longview ISD (urban): math 49% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #244 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ned E Williams El (math 41% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 377 students, 93% FRL, charter); Foster Middle (math 46% / reading 52%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 809 students, 84% FRL, charter); Longview H S (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,170 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,038 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $87,006
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $251,865
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75603

• Home prices YoY: 17.2%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $935/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $935 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,808/yr (+$151/mo · 193.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$935
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$369
• After-tax cash flow: $1,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828110
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,837
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3889
• State rank: #244 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeport

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #8430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,458
• Population (ZIP): 6,458

Population outlook (Gregg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,947 people
• By 2030: 126,542 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 127,311 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 127,289 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 124,954 · -0.8%
• By 2100: 113,737 · -9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 33% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Gregg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.5% · R 70.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.6pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+36.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+37.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.04%
• Current HPI: 280.0415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $149,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-02 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2026-03-03 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $50,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $935 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.