14 Locust St

Erlanger, KY 41018

$207,500B

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,615/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,088
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $670/mo
• Annual: $8,040/yr
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.84%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $58,100

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $208k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $335/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $208k).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#126 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Erlanger-Elsmere Independent (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #128 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $208k implies a 493% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.8% in Erlanger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,615/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 678% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.