4979 Spa Rd

Lewisburg, KY 42256

$189,999F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,128/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-251/mo
• Annual: $-3,010/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.66%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (40.6% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $73 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#295 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Logan County (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #32 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewisburg Elementary School (math 41% / reading 43%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 484 students, 64% FRL); Logan County High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #30 of 254 statewide, top 12%, 953 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.