4979 Spa Rd · Lewisburg, KY 42256

$189,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1970 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for space, flexibility, and real potential? Welcome to 4979 Spa Road in Lewisburg, KY. Situated on nearly a full acre (0.92 acres), this 3-bedroom home offers a comfortable layout with room to live and grow. Big-ticket updates are already handled, including a newer HVAC (2024), a recently replaced water heater, and a durable metal roof—giving peace of mind from day one. Inside features a functional floor plan with a spacious living area and main-level bedrooms. What truly sets this property apart is the separate living space with a tiny home on the property—perfect for guests, a home office, or even potential rental income. The 30x30 detached garage with power and a half bath adds even more versatility for a workshop or storage, along with additional outbuildings and a fenced kennel area. With usable land, mature trees, and multiple functional spaces, this property offers more than just a home—it offers options.

Key facts

• Fenced kennel area
• Usable land
• Detached garage

Tags

• SEPARATE LIVING SPACE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED KENNEL AREA
• USABLE LAND
• MATURE TREES
• MULTIPLE FUNCTIONAL SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (40.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#295 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Logan County (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #32 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $73 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,839 (40.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.66%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-21,278
• Equity at exit: $55,534

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,142
• Equity at exit: $67,046

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42256

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,446

Max offer price $145,692

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-197	+0% $-251	+5% $-305	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-340	-5% $-295	+0% $-251	+5% $-206	+10% $-162
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-202	base $-251	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,999 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,999 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,999 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,999 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,999 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,999 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,999 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,999 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,999 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $189,999 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,999 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,999 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,999 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,999 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,999 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $194,999 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Looking for space, flexibility, and real potential? Welcome to 4979 Spa Road in Lewisburg, KY. Situated on nearly a full acre (0.92 acres), this 3-bedroom home offers a comfortable layout with room to live and grow. Big-ticket updates are already handled, including a newer HVAC (2024), a recently replaced water heater, and a durable metal roof—giving peace of mind from day one. Inside features a functional floor plan with a spacious living area and main-level bedrooms. What truly sets this property apart is the separate living space with a tiny home on the property—perfect for guests, a home office, or even potential rental income. The 30x30 detached garage with power and a half bath adds even more versatility for a workshop or storage, along with additional outbuildings and a fenced kennel area. With usable land, mature trees, and multiple functional spaces, this property offers more than just a home—it offers options.

18. 2026-05-11
    status Active 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Looking for space, flexibility, and real potential? Welcome to 4979 Spa Road in Lewisburg, KY. Situated on nearly a full acre (0.92 acres), this 3-bedroom home offers a comfortable layout with room to live and grow. Big-ticket updates are already handled, including a newer HVAC (2024), a recently replaced water heater, and a durable metal roof—giving peace of mind from day one. Inside features a functional floor plan with a spacious living area and main-level bedrooms. What truly sets this property apart is the separate living space with a tiny home on the property—perfect for guests, a home office, or even potential rental income. The 30x30 detached garage with power and a half bath adds even more versatility for a workshop or storage, along with additional outbuildings and a fenced kennel area. With usable land, mature trees, and multiple functional spaces, this property offers more than just a home—it offers options.

19. 2026-04-29
    historical Active Under Contract 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Looking for space, flexibility, and real potential? Welcome to 4979 Spa Road in Lewisburg, KY. Situated on nearly a full acre (0.92 acres), this 3-bedroom home offers a comfortable layout with room to live and grow. Big-ticket updates are already handled, including a newer HVAC (2024), a recently replaced water heater, and a durable metal roof—giving peace of mind from day one. Inside features a functional floor plan with a spacious living area and main-level bedrooms. What truly sets this property apart is the separate living space with a tiny home on the property—perfect for guests, a home office, or even potential rental income. The 30x30 detached garage with power and a half bath adds even more versatility for a workshop or storage, along with additional outbuildings and a fenced kennel area. With usable land, mature trees, and multiple functional spaces, this property offers more than just a home—it offers options.

20. 2026-04-22
    listed $199,999 Active 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Looking for space, flexibility, and real potential? Welcome to 4979 Spa Road in Lewisburg, KY. Situated on nearly a full acre (0.92 acres), this 3-bedroom home offers a comfortable layout with room to live and grow. Big-ticket updates are already handled, including a newer HVAC (2024), a recently replaced water heater, and a durable metal roof—giving peace of mind from day one. Inside features a functional floor plan with a spacious living area and main-level bedrooms. What truly sets this property apart is the separate living space with a tiny home on the property—perfect for guests, a home office, or even potential rental income. The 30x30 detached garage with power and a half bath adds even more versatility for a workshop or storage, along with additional outbuildings and a fenced kennel area. With usable land, mature trees, and multiple functional spaces, this property offers more than just a home—it offers options.

21. 2025-11-18
    price $220,400
22. 2025-10-22
    price $220,900
23. 2025-07-25
    price $221,900
24. 2025-07-14
    price $224,900
25. 2025-07-14
    price $219,900
26. 2025-07-03
    listed $224,900 Active
27. 2023-10-31
    soldstatus $140,000
28. 2019-05-20
    soldstatus $70,000
29. 2019-05-17
    soldstatus $70,000
30. 2019-05-17
    soldstatus $70,000
31. 2018-09-20
    listed $72,500
32. 2015-05-26
    soldstatus $51,000
33. 2015-05-22
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$834/yr (+$69/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$6,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Logan County
• NCES district ID: 2103540
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $42,577
• Composite: 33.34/100
• National rank: #5492
• State rank: #32 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lewisburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #295
• US rank: #14165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,052

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,133 people
• By 2030: 25,572 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 24,247 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 22,849 · -12.6%
• By 2075: 19,587 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 15,927 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 21.9% · R 76.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -28.6pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 265.4274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+282.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $194,999 RASKMLS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — RASKMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — RASKMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,999 RASKMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $220,400 RASKMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $220,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $221,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $224,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $219,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $224,900 RASKMLS
• 2023-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-17 Sold (MLS) $70,000 HCTCBOR
• 2018-09-20 Listed $72,500 HCTCBOR
• 2015-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · -35.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.