1219 Fairbanks Dr

Ennis, TX 75119

$240,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$590
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,273/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (6.9% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#304 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ennis ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 434 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Ennis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.