429 Barnes Rd

Swartz, LA 71203

$130,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,591/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $465/mo
• Annual: $5,575/yr
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.32%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#184 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 6.2% in Swartz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.