1451 Trellis Ridge Dr

Motley, VA 24571

$302,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,586
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-222/mo
• Annual: $-2,663/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $84,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $302k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#446 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huddleston Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 212 students, 82% FRL); Staunton River Middle (math 45% / reading 65%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 627 students, 86% FRL); Staunton River High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 889 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 30% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $302k implies a 426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Motley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.