1451 Trellis Ridge Dr · Motley, VA 24571

$302,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1974 1.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to your own waterfront retreat at Leesville Lake w/ this 2-BR, 2-BA home, situated on a private double lot. The main level features an open-concept kitchen & living room, new sliding doors to walk out to the wrap around deck, a comfortable bedroom & modernized bathroom. In the kitchen you will find a beautiful Italian double sink, high-end gas stove w/ an electric oven, new cabinets w/ plenty of storage & solid hardwood butcher block countertops. The LR features a thermostatic gas log fireplace w/ genuine stone tile & beautiful skylights. The main level bath includes a custom designed walk-in tiled shower, w/ an easily accessible glass door. Upstairs, the primary BR has an ensuite bath, a beautiful freestanding soaking tub & beautiful stained-glass accents. Walk out of the primary BR onto a private balcony, w/ peaceful water & mountain views. Recent upgrades include windows, skylights, gutters, generator, & many more. Ideal year-round residence or vacation getaway.

Key facts

• Private double lot
• Open-concept kitchen
• Wrap around deck

Tags

• PRIVATE DOUBLE LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• ITALIAN DOUBLE SINK
• HIGH-END GAS STOVE
• THERMOSTATIC GAS LOG FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $302k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Motley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#446 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huddleston Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 212 students, 82% FRL); Staunton River Middle (math 45% / reading 65%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 627 students, 86% FRL); Staunton River High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 889 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 30% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $302k implies a 426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,530 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $20,354
• Equity at exit: $133,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $94,846
• Equity at exit: $204,731

Cash invested: $84,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24571

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,586
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,538/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,646

Max offer price $270,387

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,625
• Closing costs: $9,075
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending 1027-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

   Escape to your own waterfront retreat at Leesville Lake w/ this 2-BR, 2-BA home, situated on a private double lot. The main level features an open-concept kitchen & living room, new sliding doors to walk out to the wrap around deck, a comfortable bedroom & modernized bathroom. In the kitchen you will find a beautiful Italian double sink, high-end gas stove w/ an electric oven, new cabinets w/ plenty of storage & solid hardwood butcher block countertops. The LR features a thermostatic gas log fireplace w/ genuine stone tile & beautiful skylights. The main level bath includes a custom designed walk-in tiled shower, w/ an easily accessible glass door. Upstairs, the primary BR has an ensuite bath, a beautiful freestanding soaking tub & beautiful stained-glass accents. Walk out of the primary BR onto a private balcony, w/ peaceful water & mountain views. Recent upgrades include windows, skylights, gutters, generator, & many more. Ideal year-round residence or vacation getaway.

2. 2026-03-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

   Escape to your own waterfront retreat at Leesville Lake w/ this 2-BR, 2-BA home, situated on a private double lot. The main level features an open-concept kitchen & living room, new sliding doors to walk out to the wrap around deck, a comfortable bedroom & modernized bathroom. In the kitchen you will find a beautiful Italian double sink, high-end gas stove w/ an electric oven, new cabinets w/ plenty of storage & solid hardwood butcher block countertops. The LR features a thermostatic gas log fireplace w/ genuine stone tile & beautiful skylights. The main level bath includes a custom designed walk-in tiled shower, w/ an easily accessible glass door. Upstairs, the primary BR has an ensuite bath, a beautiful freestanding soaking tub & beautiful stained-glass accents. Walk out of the primary BR onto a private balcony, w/ peaceful water & mountain views. Recent upgrades include windows, skylights, gutters, generator, & many more. Ideal year-round residence or vacation getaway.

3. 2025-09-26
   listed $302,500 Active 1027-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

   Escape to your own waterfront retreat at Leesville Lake w/ this 2-BR, 2-BA home, situated on a private double lot. The main level features an open-concept kitchen & living room, new sliding doors to walk out to the wrap around deck, a comfortable bedroom & modernized bathroom. In the kitchen you will find a beautiful Italian double sink, high-end gas stove w/ an electric oven, new cabinets w/ plenty of storage & solid hardwood butcher block countertops. The LR features a thermostatic gas log fireplace w/ genuine stone tile & beautiful skylights. The main level bath includes a custom designed walk-in tiled shower, w/ an easily accessible glass door. Upstairs, the primary BR has an ensuite bath, a beautiful freestanding soaking tub & beautiful stained-glass accents. Walk out of the primary BR onto a private balcony, w/ peaceful water & mountain views. Recent upgrades include windows, skylights, gutters, generator, & many more. Ideal year-round residence or vacation getaway.

4. 2025-09-26
   listed $302,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

   Escape to your own waterfront retreat at Leesville Lake w/ this 2-BR, 2-BA home, situated on a private double lot. The main level features an open-concept kitchen & living room, new sliding doors to walk out to the wrap around deck, a comfortable bedroom & modernized bathroom. In the kitchen you will find a beautiful Italian double sink, high-end gas stove w/ an electric oven, new cabinets w/ plenty of storage & solid hardwood butcher block countertops. The LR features a thermostatic gas log fireplace w/ genuine stone tile & beautiful skylights. The main level bath includes a custom designed walk-in tiled shower, w/ an easily accessible glass door. Upstairs, the primary BR has an ensuite bath, a beautiful freestanding soaking tub & beautiful stained-glass accents. Walk out of the primary BR onto a private balcony, w/ peaceful water & mountain views. Recent upgrades include windows, skylights, gutters, generator, & many more. Ideal year-round residence or vacation getaway.

5. 2018-08-24
   soldstatus $57,500 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Nice retreat - Water frontage lot - No dock- All wooded

6. 2018-06-13
   listed $69,900 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Nice retreat - Water frontage lot - No dock- All wooded

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,945
• − Property taxes: −$4,538
• − Insurance: −$1,512
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$8,800
• Taxable loss: −$7,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,909
• After-tax cash flow: $-754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Motley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #19122

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,073

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Current HPI: 164.3696
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+332.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-09-26 Listed $302,500 LMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $302,500 MLSRV
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) $57,500 LMLS
• 2018-06-13 Listed $69,900 LMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $455 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.