3060 Watts Farm Rd

Hollymead, VA 22911

$419,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,184 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,983/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-302/mo
• Annual: $-3,618/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $298k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Stony Point Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 189 students, 28% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $234k; list at $420k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Hollymead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.