3060 Watts Farm Rd · Hollymead, VA 22911

$419,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1973 3.00 ac lot $192/sqft · 13% below area Est $480k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING RANCHER ON 3 PRIVATE ACRES IN STONY POINT MINUTES FROM RT 29, CHO AIRPORT, SHOPPING, GROCERIES, RESTAURANTS, TARGET, & MORE. Property features a expansive deck overlooking the private lot with a lower deck patio perfect for entertaining. Enjoy peace, quiet and privacy while being 15 minutes from all the conveniences Charlottesville has to offer. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers almost 2,200 finished square feet of living space, including a fully finished walk-out basement. The main level features a spacious family room with a brick wood-burning fireplace, a bright kitchen, three bedrooms including a primary suite with attached bath, and convenient main-level laundry hookups. The finished basement adds a second family room with another wood-burning fireplace, a bedroom/office, full bath, bonus room and laundry area. Outdoor living is a highlight with a rear porch, deck, and patio overlooking the private, partially fenced, wooded lot. Additional features include garden space and plenty of room for entertaining or play. Set on 3 acres in the Stony Point area, this home combines privacy with convenience in a desirable location.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 122 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Hollymead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Stony Point Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 189 students, 28% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $234k; list at $420k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,297 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,119
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: -12.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-84,196
• Equity at exit: $62,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-85,251
• Equity at exit: $36,305

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22911

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,373/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,365

Max offer price $366,638

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-183	+0% $-302	+5% $-420	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-537	-5% $-419	+0% $-302	+5% $-184	+10% $-66
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-195	base $-302	+0.5pp $-410	+1.0pp $-521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $419,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $419,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $419,900 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,900 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $419,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $424,900 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    CHARMING RANCHER ON 3 PRIVATE ACRES IN STONY POINT MINUTES FROM RT 29, CHO AIRPORT, SHOPPING, GROCERIES, RESTAURANTS, TARGET, & MORE. Property features a expansive deck overlooking the private lot with a lower deck patio perfect for entertaining. Enjoy peace, quiet and privacy while being 15 minutes from all the conveniences Charlottesville has to offer. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers almost 2,200 finished square feet of living space, including a fully finished walk-out basement. The main level features a spacious family room with a brick wood-burning fireplace, a bright kitchen, three bedrooms including a primary suite with attached bath, and convenient main-level laundry hookups. The finished basement adds a second family room with another wood-burning fireplace, a bedroom/office, full bath, bonus room and laundry area. Outdoor living is a highlight with a rear porch, deck, and patio overlooking the private, partially fenced, wooded lot. Additional features include garden space and plenty of room for entertaining or play. Set on 3 acres in the Stony Point area, this home combines privacy with convenience in a desirable location.

18. 2026-04-09
    price $429,900 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    CHARMING RANCHER ON 3 PRIVATE ACRES IN STONY POINT MINUTES FROM RT 29, CHO AIRPORT, SHOPPING, GROCERIES, RESTAURANTS, TARGET, & MORE. Property features a expansive deck overlooking the private lot with a lower deck patio perfect for entertaining. Enjoy peace, quiet and privacy while being 15 minutes from all the conveniences Charlottesville has to offer. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers almost 2,200 finished square feet of living space, including a fully finished walk-out basement. The main level features a spacious family room with a brick wood-burning fireplace, a bright kitchen, three bedrooms including a primary suite with attached bath, and convenient main-level laundry hookups. The finished basement adds a second family room with another wood-burning fireplace, a bedroom/office, full bath, bonus room and laundry area. Outdoor living is a highlight with a rear porch, deck, and patio overlooking the private, partially fenced, wooded lot. Additional features include garden space and plenty of room for entertaining or play. Set on 3 acres in the Stony Point area, this home combines privacy with convenience in a desirable location.

19. 2026-03-18
    price $434,900 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    CHARMING RANCHER ON 3 PRIVATE ACRES IN STONY POINT MINUTES FROM RT 29, CHO AIRPORT, SHOPPING, GROCERIES, RESTAURANTS, TARGET, & MORE. Property features a expansive deck overlooking the private lot with a lower deck patio perfect for entertaining. Enjoy peace, quiet and privacy while being 15 minutes from all the conveniences Charlottesville has to offer. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers almost 2,200 finished square feet of living space, including a fully finished walk-out basement. The main level features a spacious family room with a brick wood-burning fireplace, a bright kitchen, three bedrooms including a primary suite with attached bath, and convenient main-level laundry hookups. The finished basement adds a second family room with another wood-burning fireplace, a bedroom/office, full bath, bonus room and laundry area. Outdoor living is a highlight with a rear porch, deck, and patio overlooking the private, partially fenced, wooded lot. Additional features include garden space and plenty of room for entertaining or play. Set on 3 acres in the Stony Point area, this home combines privacy with convenience in a desirable location.

20. 2026-03-03
    price $439,900 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    CHARMING RANCHER ON 3 PRIVATE ACRES IN STONY POINT MINUTES FROM RT 29, CHO AIRPORT, SHOPPING, GROCERIES, RESTAURANTS, TARGET, & MORE. Property features a expansive deck overlooking the private lot with a lower deck patio perfect for entertaining. Enjoy peace, quiet and privacy while being 15 minutes from all the conveniences Charlottesville has to offer. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers almost 2,200 finished square feet of living space, including a fully finished walk-out basement. The main level features a spacious family room with a brick wood-burning fireplace, a bright kitchen, three bedrooms including a primary suite with attached bath, and convenient main-level laundry hookups. The finished basement adds a second family room with another wood-burning fireplace, a bedroom/office, full bath, bonus room and laundry area. Outdoor living is a highlight with a rear porch, deck, and patio overlooking the private, partially fenced, wooded lot. Additional features include garden space and plenty of room for entertaining or play. Set on 3 acres in the Stony Point area, this home combines privacy with convenience in a desirable location.

21. 2026-02-19
    listed $444,900 Active 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    CHARMING RANCHER ON 3 PRIVATE ACRES IN STONY POINT MINUTES FROM RT 29, CHO AIRPORT, SHOPPING, GROCERIES, RESTAURANTS, TARGET, & MORE. Property features a expansive deck overlooking the private lot with a lower deck patio perfect for entertaining. Enjoy peace, quiet and privacy while being 15 minutes from all the conveniences Charlottesville has to offer. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers almost 2,200 finished square feet of living space, including a fully finished walk-out basement. The main level features a spacious family room with a brick wood-burning fireplace, a bright kitchen, three bedrooms including a primary suite with attached bath, and convenient main-level laundry hookups. The finished basement adds a second family room with another wood-burning fireplace, a bedroom/office, full bath, bonus room and laundry area. Outdoor living is a highlight with a rear porch, deck, and patio overlooking the private, partially fenced, wooded lot. Additional features include garden space and plenty of room for entertaining or play. Set on 3 acres in the Stony Point area, this home combines privacy with convenience in a desirable location.

22. 2025-12-12
    historical
23. 2025-11-07
    price $444,900
24. 2025-10-06
    price $449,900
25. 2025-08-27
    listed $454,900 Active
26. 2013-06-19
    soldstatus $234,000
27. 2012-09-10
    listed $254,900
28. 2004-05-24
    soldstatus $151,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,373 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,443 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$3,373
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,864
• − Management: −$2,864
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$11,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollymead

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #9656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,107
• Household income: $128,235
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.54%
• Current HPI: 220.3768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+181.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $424,900 CAAR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $429,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $434,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $439,900 CAAR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $444,900 CAAR
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $444,900 CAAR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $449,900 CAAR
• 2025-08-27 Listed $454,900 CAAR
• 2013-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $234,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-10 Listed $254,900 CAAR
• 2004-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,373 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.