1415 Spear Dr

Weslaco, TX 78596

$155,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,747/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$364
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $203/mo
• Annual: $2,439/yr
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $166 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-906 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#277 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 710 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.1% in Weslaco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate: bathroom vanity — dated and worn
• Unknown: HVAC system — photos do not show HVAC
• Minor: exterior siding — some discoloration