1415 Spear Dr · Weslaco, TX 78596

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 6,969 sqft lot $88/sqft · at area comps Est $158k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

$7,000 towards your closing costs! Corner lot + 4 bedrooms + affordable—rare combo in this price range. Located just 5 minutes from Expressway 83, this home offers the convenience buyers want with the space they need. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with four bedrooms, ideal for families, a home office, or flexible living. The home has been well cared for, making it a solid option for buyers looking for something move-in ready without stretching their budget. The corner lot provides added privacy, extra parking potential, and room to enjoy outdoor space—features that are hard to find at this price point. If you’ve been searching for a home that balances location, space, and affordability, this one checks the boxes. Schedule your showing and see the value for yourself.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• Functional layout
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• EXTRA PARKING POTENTIAL
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.1% in Weslaco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#277 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 708 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $166 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-906 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,870
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -1.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3111 Primrose Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-13%)	3mo	$169,000	$110	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,297
• Equity at exit: $40,532

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $36,488
• Equity at exit: $45,280

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78596

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 708
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,490

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Whitetail Dr Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	2066	$1,700	$0.82	19d	1	0.33mi
3117 Whitetail Dr Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,500	$0.92	14d	1	0.34mi
2211 Tomatillo Dr Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$2,200	$1.62	23d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $155,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    $7,000 towards your closing costs! Corner lot + 4 bedrooms + affordable—rare combo in this price range. Located just 5 minutes from Expressway 83, this home offers the convenience buyers want with the space they need. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with four bedrooms, ideal for families, a home office, or flexible living. The home has been well cared for, making it a solid option for buyers looking for something move-in ready without stretching their budget. The corner lot provides added privacy, extra parking potential, and room to enjoy outdoor space—features that are hard to find at this price point. If you’ve been searching for a home that balances location, space, and affordability, this one checks the boxes. Schedule your showing and see the value for yourself.

17. 2026-03-23
    listed $148,000 Active 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    $7,000 towards your closing costs! Corner lot + 4 bedrooms + affordable—rare combo in this price range. Located just 5 minutes from Expressway 83, this home offers the convenience buyers want with the space they need. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with four bedrooms, ideal for families, a home office, or flexible living. The home has been well cared for, making it a solid option for buyers looking for something move-in ready without stretching their budget. The corner lot provides added privacy, extra parking potential, and room to enjoy outdoor space—features that are hard to find at this price point. If you’ve been searching for a home that balances location, space, and affordability, this one checks the boxes. Schedule your showing and see the value for yourself.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $50
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12
• After-tax cash flow: $2,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bathroom, as well as some exterior work. Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would also enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and worn
• Unknown HVAC system — photos do not show HVAC
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing kitchen would attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing bathroom would attract more buyers
• Both landscape and add curb appeal — improving curb appeal would attract more buyers and renters
• Both replace HVAC system — modernizing HVAC would improve comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom vanity · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC system · photos do not show HVAC	Unknown	$500–3,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$7,000–36,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing bathroom would attract more buyers ↑
• Both landscape and add curb appeal — improving curb appeal would attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace HVAC system — modernizing HVAC would improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Weslaco

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #277
• US rank: #6469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weslaco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,942

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 38% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 72%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Current HPI: 261.5117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $155,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $148,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,796 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.