Poppy Plan

Argyle, TX 76226

$388,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,067 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 1090 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,185
• Tax + insurance: −$694
• HOA: −$214
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-748/mo
• Annual: $-8,981/yr
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.70%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $116,652

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $389k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-748 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (23.7% below list).
• It's been on market 1090 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#658 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1719 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 97d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.7% in Argyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1090 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.