Poppy Plan · Argyle, TX 76226

$388,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,067 sqft · SingleFamily · 1045 Days on market

Excellent condition $214/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Poppy offers flexibility for more personalization of your home. With a built-in flex room, you can choose to create whatever best suits your lifestyle - maybe an extra bedroom, office, craft room, or play area!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1044 days

🏗️ New construction. The $388,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,663.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $389k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-745 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Argyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#658 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1561 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1045 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,196 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1045 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,663
• List price: $388,990
• Delta: -6.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
908 Peaceful Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,068 (0%)	1mo	$350,000	$169	96
904 10th St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,884 (-9%)	3mo	$365,000	$194	79
1341 Roundup Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,243 (+8%)	2mo	$435,000	$194	78
1624 Ginger Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,137 (+3%)	2mo	$429,724	$201	77
1529 Laurel Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,857 (-10%)	2mo	$394,215	$212	71
1414 Roundup Way	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,318 (+12%)	2mo	$425,000	$183	70
1221 15th St	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,268 (+10%)	2mo	$449,000	$198	67
1316 16th St	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,240 (+8%)	3mo	$525,000	$234	60
705 Fenceline Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,004 (-3%)	0mo	$415,000	$207	58
1508 Lavender Ln	0.52mi	3/3.0	2,242 (+8%)	2mo	$550,000	$245	58
1314 20th St	0.74mi	3/2.5	2,245 (+9%)	0mo	$499,900	$223	51
221 Sunrise	0.75mi	3/2.5	2,371 (+15%)	1mo	$450,000	$190	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-119,042
• Equity at exit: $62,275

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-180,425
• Equity at exit: $36,112

Cash invested: $116,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 70 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $436,018 ($203/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1561
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,265/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,925

Max offer price $309,914

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-456	-5% $-600	+0% $-745	+5% $-889	+10% $-1,033
Rent	-10% $-980	-5% $-862	+0% $-745	+5% $-627	+10% $-509
Rate	-1.0pp $-534	-0.5pp $-638	base $-745	+0.5pp $-853	+1.0pp $-963

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,416
• Closing costs: $12,530
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1864	$2,595	$1.39	12d	1	0.06mi
904 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,800	$1.49	82d	1	0.06mi
716 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2289	$2,800	$1.22	11d	1	0.09mi
940 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,650	$1.45	20d	1	0.09mi
721 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$2,550	$1.35	139d	1	0.11mi
701 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,649	$1.41	139d	1	0.13mi
1401 Roundup Way Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2375	$4,450	$1.87	37d	1	0.16mi
840 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.5	2686	$3,500	$1.30	51d	1	0.20mi
605 Boardwalk Way Argyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,450	$1.33	45d	1	0.20mi
824 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2453	$3,250	$1.32	139d	1	0.30mi
816 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,595	$1.57	139d	1	0.32mi
701 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,900	$1.55	84d	1	0.32mi
701 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,900	$1.55	78d	1	0.32mi
1704 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2116	$2,578	$1.22	0d	19	0.33mi
1708 Laurel Ln Unit 2 Lantana, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,636	$1.43	18d	1	0.34mi
1804 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	4.0	2439	$3,167	$1.30	139d	1	0.36mi
1841 Woodlawn Way Unit 142 Lantana, TX	3.0	2.5	2062	$2,891	$1.40	26d	1	0.40mi
724 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2025	$2,575	$1.27	117d	1	0.40mi
724 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	3.0	2025	$2,800	$1.38	4d	1	0.40mi
537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,499	$1.47	120d	1	0.43mi
537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,450	$1.44	24d	1	0.43mi
721 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,500	$1.25	41d	1	0.44mi
1108 16th St Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2932	$4,000	$1.36	35d	1	0.44mi
1929 Woodlawn Way Unit 98 Roanoke, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,771	$1.50	18d	1	0.45mi
1933 Woodlawn Way Unit 99 Northlake, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$3,820	$1.75	63d	1	0.45mi
517 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,295	$1.36	46d	1	0.46mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,750	$1.37	115d	1	0.46mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,800	$1.40	56d	1	0.46mi
528 4th St Argyle, TX	2.0	2.5	1509	$2,500	$1.66	57d	1	0.47mi
809 Blossom Ln Unit 35 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,610	$1.42	117d	1	0.47mi
909 Blossom Ln Unit 51 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,704	$1.47	117d	1	0.47mi
1208 16th St Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2932	$4,000	$1.36	51d	1	0.48mi
441 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,640	$1.32	76d	1	0.49mi
441 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,540	$1.27	51d	1	0.49mi
433 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,500	$1.49	51d	1	0.50mi
1029 3rd St Argyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,450	$1.56	98d	1	0.50mi
2029 Woodlawn Way Unit 85 Roanoke, TX	3.0	2.5	2062	$3,202	$1.55	0d	1	0.50mi
420 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2035	$2,445	$1.20	107d	1	0.52mi
416 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2044	$2,500	$1.22	12d	1	0.52mi
405 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	3.0	2044	$3,000	$1.47	4d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $388,990 Active 1045 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $388,990 Active 1044 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $388,990 Active 1043 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $388,990 Active 1042 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $388,990 Active 1041 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $388,990 Active 1040 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $388,990 Active 1039 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $388,990 Active 1038 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $388,990 Active 1037 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $388,990 Active 1036 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $388,990 Active 1035 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 1034 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $388,990 Active 1033 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $388,990 Active 1032 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $388,990 Active 1026 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $388,990 Active 1025 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $388,990 Active 1023 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $388,990 Active 1021 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $388,990 Active 1020 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $388,990 Active 1019 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $388,990 Active 1018 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $388,990 Active 1017 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $388,990 Active 1015 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $388,990 Active 1014 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $388,990 Active 1013 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $388,990 Active 1012 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $388,990 Active 1011 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $388,990 Active 1010 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $388,990 Active 1009 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $388,990 Active 1008 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $388,990 Active 1007 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $388,990 Active 1006 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $388,990 Active 1005 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $388,990 Active 1004 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 1003 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $388,990 Active 1002 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $388,990 Active 1001 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $388,990 Active 1000 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $388,990 Active 999 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $388,990 Active 998 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $388,990 Active 996 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $388,990 Active 995 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $388,990 Active 994 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $388,990 Active 993 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $388,990 Active 990 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $388,990 Active 989 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $388,990 Active 988 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $388,990 Active 987 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $388,990 Active 985 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $388,990 Active 983 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,396
• − Property taxes: −$6,265
• − Insurance: −$2,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,863
• − Management: −$2,863
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$12,150
• Taxable loss: −$16,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,938
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This multi-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers flexibility through a built-in flex room and has a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the home's current condition and its potential for further updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, flooring, etc.) — Interior updates can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system and other mechanical systems can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Addition of a flex room — The flex room can be customized to suit various needs, increasing the home's versatility and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop El B- TX #409/4,322 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Argyle Middle A- TX #73/1,662 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Argyle H S A TX #36/1,632 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Argyle

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 43,587
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $388,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $403,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $402,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $401,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $398,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-14 Listed $397,990 Zillow