2151 Old Oakland Rd #324

San Jose, CA 95131

$320,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $948/mo
• Annual: $11,372/yr
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.69%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $948 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $320k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Orchard Elementary (urban): math 51% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #225 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Elementary (763 students, 44% FRL); Evergreen Valley High (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A-, #45 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 2,767 students, 13% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orchard Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 48 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.