2151 Old Oakland Rd #324 · San Jose, CA 95131

$320,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 132 Days on market

Built 1972 $267/sqft · 19% above area Est $269k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled manufactured home located in the desirable gated Casa Del Lago community in the heart of Silicon Valley. This spacious home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, plus two additional office spaces, perfect for remote work, guests, or flex living. A full interior remodel completed in December 2025 delivers a modern, move-in-ready feel, featuring a fully remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, newly layered walls, fresh interior paint, updated vinyl flooring throughout, and new carpet in all bedrooms and office spaces. The home is equipped with a modern ductless mini-split heat pump system, featuring multiple indoor wall units with one unit per room. Additional upgrades include a new exterior condenser unit, a new ventilation system, and a new roof installed in 2025 with a 10-year warranty. Prime central location with easy access to Hwy 880, 237, 680, and 101, as well as VTA Light Rail and BART. Conveniently located within walking distance to Orchard School (K–8) and just minutes from major employers, Great Mall, Costco, Sprouts, H Mart, Ranch 99, City Sports Club, and a wide variety of shopping, dining, and entertainment options.

Key facts

• New roof
• Community pool
• Built 1972

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• GATED CASA DEL LAGO COMMUNITY
• FULLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW EXTERIOR CONDENSER UNIT
• NEW VENTILATION SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $948 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Orchard Elementary (urban): math 51% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #225 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 48 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.69%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,262
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: 18.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2151 Oakland Rd #425	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	14mo	$188,000	$163	82
2151 Oakland Rd #363	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	16mo	$270,000	$234	80
2151 Oakland Rd #195	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	14mo	$339,000	$272	76
2151 Oakland Rd #443	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	3mo	$229,900	$171	71
2151 Oakland Rd #520	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (+3%)	20mo	$318,000	$257	67
2151 Oakland Rd #124	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,020 (-15%)	2mo	$105,000	$103	66
2151 Oakland Rd #269	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-13%)	10mo	$286,888	$276	64
2151 Oakland #170	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	20mo	$300,000	$223	58
2151 Oakland Rd #172	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	18mo	$250,000	$186	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $15,393
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $120,369
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95131

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,999 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $948

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,169	-5% $1,058	+0% $948	+5% $837	+10% $726
Rent	-10% $632	-5% $790	+0% $948	+5% $1,106	+10% $1,264
Rate	-1.0pp $1,109	-0.5pp $1,029	base $948	+0.5pp $865	+1.0pp $780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1141 Rock Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1376	$4,295	$3.12	0d	1	0.16mi
1799 Snell Pl Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1450	$4,450	$3.07	18d	1	0.62mi
69 Ede Ln Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1253	$4,128	$3.29	9d	1	0.69mi
1753 Capulet Dr Milpitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	17d	1	0.81mi
1573 Capulet Dr Milpitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,750	$3.41	23d	1	0.81mi
1331 Lakeshore Cir San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1017	$3,928	$3.86	0d	28	0.96mi
1600 Whitewood Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$3,871	$3.96	0d	11	0.97mi
1625 Delano St Unit 31A Milpitas, CA	3.0	2.5	1458	$4,295	$2.95	0d	1	0.99mi
312 Gates Dr Milpitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$4,580	$5.14	0d	15	0.99mi
600 Epic Way San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$4,847	$5.82	0d	25	1.01mi
676 Encore Way San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	745	$2,699	$3.62	45d	1	1.02mi
650 E Capitol Ave Milpitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$4,835	$4.82	0d	17	1.04mi
1821 S Milpitas Blvd Milpitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1013	$4,182	$4.13	0d	6	1.06mi
1201 S Main St Milpitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1112	$4,342	$3.90	0d	1	1.12mi
425 Navaro Way #120 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1088	$3,750	$3.45	45d	1	1.13mi
440 Navaro Pl San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,924	$3.13	25d	1	1.18mi
1101 S Main St Milpitas, CA	1.0	1.0	713	$2,850	$4.00	0d	1	1.21mi
345 Village Center Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$4,541	$5.17	0d	17	1.22mi
753 Montague Expy Milpitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$3,970	$4.61	0d	4	1.25mi
1102 S Abel St Milpitas, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$4,060	$4.05	0d	10	1.26mi
1895 N Capitol Ave San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$3,505	$5.33	0d	1	1.28mi
1323 Pebble Ct San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1093	$3,500	$3.20	18d	1	1.44mi
1251 Merry Loop Milpitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	796	$3,820	$4.80	0d	4	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $320,000 Active 1165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled manufactured home located in the desirable gated Casa Del Lago community in the heart of Silicon Valley. This spacious home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, plus two additional office spaces, perfect for remote work, guests, or flex living. A full interior remodel completed in December 2025 delivers a modern, move-in-ready feel, featuring a fully remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, newly layered walls, fresh interior paint, updated vinyl flooring throughout, and new carpet in all bedrooms and office spaces. The home is equipped with a modern ductless mini-split heat pump system, featuring multiple indoor wall units with one unit per room. Additional upgrades include a new exterior condenser unit, a new ventilation system, and a new roof installed in 2025 with a 10-year warranty. Prime central location with easy access to Hwy 880, 237, 680, and 101, as well as VTA Light Rail and BART. Conveniently located within walking distance to Orchard School (K–8) and just minutes from major employers, Great Mall, Costco, Sprouts, H Mart, Ranch 99, City Sports Club, and a wide variety of shopping, dining, and entertainment options.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,839
• − Management: −$3,839
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $6,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $9,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orchard Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628680
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $108,165
• Composite: 54.67/100
• National rank: #2853
• State rank: #225 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,179
• Household income: $170,255
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Asian (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% White 10% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 57% · China, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 31% English-only · Chinese 28% Vietnamese 11% Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1287.10%
• Current HPI: 314.6879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $320,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR