4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,594 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,614/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$426
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$339
Net cashflow
$-17/mo
Annual
$-198/yr
Cap rate
6.17%
Cash-on-cash
-0.43%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-198/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (1.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (2.2% below list).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#781 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
Brownwood ISD (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #344 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 380 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Brownwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29