4518 Hall Rd #20

Oswego, NY 13126

$445,750C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,618 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,338
• Tax + insurance: −$941
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$950
• Net cashflow: $296/mo
• Annual: $3,554/yr
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.85%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $124,810

Investor read

• This is a 2×3bd/2.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $446k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $99/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $446k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $432k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $4,525/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1341% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.