4518 Hall Rd #20 · Oswego, NY 13126

$445,750

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,618 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1890 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This property consists of a main home & an outbuilding with 4 apartments. The main home has 5 bedrooms, an unfinished loft and an office and an unfinished commercial kitchen. The apartment building has one 3 bedroom, 2-2 bedroom and one 1-bedroom apartments. This property has potential to bring in tremendous rental income. Town of Scriba NY. The price per square foot is nearly unmatched in the area.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×3bd/2.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $446k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $99/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $446k).
• Recommended offer: $432k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,525/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1341% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $432,377 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.85%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-15,189
• Equity at exit: $81,439

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $133,064
• Equity at exit: $64,764

Cash invested: $124,810 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 22.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,338
• Tax from tax record: −$755 /mo · $9,064/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$950
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,150

Max offer price $445,750

Occupancy floor 88%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,272
1× unit	1	1	$1,252
Total (3 units)			$4,525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,438
• Closing costs: $13,372
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-20
   historical
2. 2026-01-19
   historical
3. 2026-01-19
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-11
   listed $445,750 Active
5. 2025-12-11
   listed $445,750 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,064 · $755/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,064 · $755/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,969
• − Property taxes: −$9,064
• − Insurance: −$2,229
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,344
• − Management: −$4,344
• − Depreciation: −$12,967
• Taxable loss: −$3,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $4,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-01-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $445,750 CNYIS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $445,750 CNYIS

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,064 · +22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.