3202 Herbertsville Rd

Point Pleasant, NJ 08742

$554,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,910
• Tax + insurance: −$768
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,378
• Net cashflow: $1,507/mo
• Annual: $18,083/yr
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.64%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $155,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $555k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $555k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($538k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $538k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#136 in NJ, #3,574 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Point Pleasant Borough School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 472 in NJ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.7%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $555k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $155k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.9% in Point Pleasant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,564/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) (locally 388% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.