3202 Herbertsville Rd · Point Pleasant, NJ 08742

$554,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1946 4,791 sqft lot Est $678k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Convenient location
• Colonial-style home

Tags

• COLONIAL-STYLE HOME
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• LOCAL PARKS
• POINT PLEASANT SCHOOL DISTRICT
• PROXIMITY TO BEACHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Stove hood
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partial basement; Wood flooring; Stove; Stove hood

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $555k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $555k).
• Recommended offer: $547k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.8% in Point Pleasant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#136 in NJ, #3,574 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Point Pleasant Borough School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 472 in NJ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.7%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,564/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) (locally 388% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $155k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($547k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $555k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $546,576 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.64%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $678,496
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3105 Cambridge Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,450 (-0%)	4mo	$675,000	$466	87
539 Summit Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	4mo	$765,000	$506	73
3118 Pocahontas Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-0%)	8mo	$735,000	$508	63
601 Marshall Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (-12%)	5mo	$625,000	$491	60
529 Smith Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+8%)	8mo	$650,000	$415	59
303 River Ave	0.43mi	4/1.0	1,584 (+9%)	9mo	$699,000	$441	54
3122 Hiawatha Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,566 (+8%)	10mo	$650,000	$415	50
326 Oxford Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	10mo	$635,000	$413	49
32 Bay Bridge Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,488 (+2%)	13mo	$605,000	$407	47
208 Chatham Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (+9%)	9mo	$780,000	$490	47
1204 Treeneedle Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+10%)	6mo	$600,000	$375	41
1203 River Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-8%)	12mo	$650,000	$488	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $40,747
• Equity at exit: $82,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $316,950
• Equity at exit: $47,978

Cash invested: $155,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08742

• Rents YoY: 11.7%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,910
• Tax from tax record: −$537 /mo · $6,445/yr
• Insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,378
• Net cashflow: $1,507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,656

Max offer price $554,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,821	-5% $1,664	+0% $1,507	+5% $1,350	+10% $1,193
Rent	-10% $988	-5% $1,248	+0% $1,507	+5% $1,766	+10% $2,025
Rate	-1.0pp $1,786	-0.5pp $1,648	base $1,507	+0.5pp $1,363	+1.0pp $1,217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,725
• Closing costs: $16,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1414 Treeneedle Rd Point Pleasant Boro, NJ	3.0	2.0	1640	$3,000	$1.83	25d	1	0.90mi
900 Ocean Ave Point Pleasant Beach, NJ	3.0	3.5	1716	$14,250	$8.30	19d	2	1.29mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $554,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $554,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $554,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $554,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $569,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $569,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $569,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $569,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $569,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $569,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $569,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $569,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $569,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $569,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $569,900 Active 769-char remark
16. 2017-03-13
    historical
17. 2017-03-06
    price $279,900
18. 2017-01-10
    listed $299,900 Active
19. 2007-11-08
    soldstatus $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,445 · $537/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,131 · $844/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,686/yr (+$307/mo · 57.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,083
• − Property taxes: −$6,445
• − Insurance: −$2,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,301
• − Management: −$6,301
• − Depreciation: −$16,143
• Taxable income: $9,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,332
• After-tax cash flow: $15,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Point Pleasant Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 3413290
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $82,536
• Composite: 45.44/100
• National rank: #2619
• State rank: #132 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Point Pleasant

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #3574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Pleasant, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 25,732
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,732
• Household income: $123,152
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -467.19%
• Current HPI: 389.4401
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.65%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+101.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $554,900 MOMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $569,900 MOMLS
• 2017-03-13 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2017-03-06 Price Changed $279,900 MOMLS
• 2017-01-10 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2007-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,445 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.