303 W Centennial Ave

Carthage, MO 64836

$160,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,306/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $50/mo
• Annual: $601/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($601/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#131 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carthage R-IX (town): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #183 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mark Twain Elem. (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 166 students, 71% FRL); Carthage Jr. High (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #189 of 391 statewide, top 51%, 752 students, 64% FRL); Carthage High School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #208 of 521 statewide, top 40%, 1,610 students, 60% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.