303 W Centennial Ave · Carthage, MO 64836

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · Other public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1920 6,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just shy of 1,820 square feet, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, two-story home sits on a generous corner lot directly across from Griggs Park, where you can grab a game of basketball, tennis, pickleball, and play on the playground just steps from your front door. Some notable features include 4 beds, 2 baths, a fully fenced corner lot with a tornado shelter, and a detached garage that adds room for tools, toys or even a weekend project. The main floor features a large living room filled with natural light, a primary bedroom, kitchen, bathroom, and laundry area. The mud room offers a great place to walk in from the backyard. Upstairs you'll find 3 more bedrooms and a second full bath, offering plenty of space to spread out. With solid bones and thoughtfully chosen updates, this house invites someone to add their personal touch and write the next chapter.

Key facts

• Large living room
• Tornado shelter
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TORNADO SHELTER
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• MUD ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($601/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#131 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carthage R-IX (town): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #183 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mark Twain Elem. (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 166 students, 71% FRL); Carthage Jr. High (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #189 of 391 statewide, top 51%, 752 students, 64% FRL); Carthage High School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #208 of 521 statewide, top 40%, 1,610 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,628 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,794
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,971
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64836

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $914/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $95	+0% $50	+5% $5	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $-2	+0% $50	+5% $102	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $91	base $50	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Just shy of 1,820 square feet, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, two-story home sits on a generous corner lot directly across from Griggs Park, where you can grab a game of basketball, tennis, pickleball, and play on the playground just steps from your front door. Some notable features include 4 beds, 2 baths, a fully fenced corner lot with a tornado shelter, and a detached garage that adds room for tools, toys or even a weekend project. The main floor features a large living room filled with natural light, a primary bedroom, kitchen, bathroom, and laundry area. The mud room offers a great place to walk in from the backyard. Upstairs you'll find 3 more bedrooms and a second full bath, offering plenty of space to spread out. With solid bones and thoughtfully chosen updates, this house invites someone to add their personal touch and write the next chapter.

2. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-16
   status Active
4. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-22
   listed $160,000 Active 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Just shy of 1,820 square feet, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, two-story home sits on a generous corner lot directly across from Griggs Park, where you can grab a game of basketball, tennis, pickleball, and play on the playground just steps from your front door. Some notable features include 4 beds, 2 baths, a fully fenced corner lot with a tornado shelter, and a detached garage that adds room for tools, toys or even a weekend project. The main floor features a large living room filled with natural light, a primary bedroom, kitchen, bathroom, and laundry area. The mud room offers a great place to walk in from the backyard. Upstairs you'll find 3 more bedrooms and a second full bath, offering plenty of space to spread out. With solid bones and thoughtfully chosen updates, this house invites someone to add their personal touch and write the next chapter.

6. 2026-01-22
   listed $160,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Just shy of 1,820 square feet, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, two-story home sits on a generous corner lot directly across from Griggs Park, where you can grab a game of basketball, tennis, pickleball, and play on the playground just steps from your front door. Some notable features include 4 beds, 2 baths, a fully fenced corner lot with a tornado shelter, and a detached garage that adds room for tools, toys or even a weekend project. The main floor features a large living room filled with natural light, a primary bedroom, kitchen, bathroom, and laundry area. The mud room offers a great place to walk in from the backyard. Upstairs you'll find 3 more bedrooms and a second full bath, offering plenty of space to spread out. With solid bones and thoughtfully chosen updates, this house invites someone to add their personal touch and write the next chapter.

7. 2021-01-14
   soldstatus
8. 2020-12-31
   soldstatus 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Welcome home to a beautiful, largely remodeled piece of Carthage charm! This home has lots of space with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a detached 17' x 25' garage. You are going to love it. Text or call for your tour!

9. 2020-08-26
   listed $129,750 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Welcome home to a beautiful, largely remodeled piece of Carthage charm! This home has lots of space with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a detached 17' x 25' garage. You are going to love it. Text or call for your tour!

10. 2008-04-01
    soldstatus
11. 1981-03-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,552 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 69.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$914
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$519
• After-tax cash flow: $1,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2907460
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,696
• Composite: 31.85/100
• National rank: #5874
• State rank: #183 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #7646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, MO
• County: Jasper County · 79,035 people
• City population: 26,562
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 26,562
• Household income: $61,335
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.61%
• Current HPI: 250.499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+23.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-06 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — OGAR
• 2026-01-26 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-01-22 Listed $160,000 OGAR
• 2026-01-22 Listed $160,000 SOMO
• 2021-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2020-08-26 Listed $129,750 OGAR
• 2008-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $914 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.