8 Vibernum Dr

Blasdell, NY 14075

$17,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax + insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$780
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $816/yr
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.15%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 7.19%
• Cash to close: $4,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $17k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($816/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $17k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $118 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $510 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Big Tree Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 540 students, 38% FRL); Frontier Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 1,071 students, 34% FRL); Frontier Senior High School (math 97% / reading 95%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,352 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 64% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.5% in Blasdell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.