8 Vibernum Dr · Blasdell, NY 14075

$17,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · Manufactured public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1983 $780/mo HOA · 49% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Built in storage
• Attached garage

Tags

• BROOK GARDENS COMMUNITY
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• BACKYARD SPACE
• HOT WATER TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $17k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $17k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 4.5% in Blasdell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Big Tree Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 540 students, 38% FRL); Frontier Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 1,071 students, 34% FRL); Frontier Senior High School (math 97% / reading 95%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,352 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $118 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $510 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.

Recommended offer $15,470 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.16%
• DSCR: 4.97
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Vibernum Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0	924 (-8%)	10mo	$26,000	$28	78
69 S Eaglecrest Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	994 (-1%)	3mo	$52,500	$53	76
17 Rippleway Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (+3%)	1mo	$28,000	$27	74
10 Vibernum Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-8%)	10mo	$23,500	$25	73
32 Brookridge Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0	924 (-8%)	2mo	$37,250	$40	73
32 Waterview Pkwy	0.22mi	2/1.0	936 (-7%)	8mo	$25,000	$27	72
21 Brush Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (+6%)	4mo	$93,500	$88	68
41 S Roxbury Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-8%)	3mo	$40,000	$43	67
37 Waterview Pkwy	0.24mi	2/1.0	924 (-8%)	11mo	$56,000	$61	66
52 Waterview Pkwy	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-8%)	3mo	$65,000	$70	64
50 S Roxbury Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-8%)	6mo	$84,900	$92	60
87 Waterview Pkwy	0.44mi	2/1.5	924 (-8%)	11mo	$46,000	$50	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $23,874
• Equity at exit: $2,535

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.14×
• Total profit: $67,292
• Equity at exit: $1,470

Cash invested: $4,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$21 /mo · $255/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$780
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $17,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $360	+0% $354	+5% $348	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $291	+0% $354	+5% $416	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $358	base $354	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,250
• Closing costs: $510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3580 Sowles Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	3d	1	1.14mi
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	3d	1	1.17mi
4600 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	3d	13	1.29mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,415	$1.92	3d	12	1.44mi
4779 S Park Ave Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0–2.5	1287	$1,875	$1.46	3d	3	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $780 · $9,360/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-02
   price $17,000
3. 2025-12-17
   listed $20,000 Active
4. 2023-03-03
   soldstatus $20,000 Closed Sale or Rented 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

5. 2023-02-02
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

6. 2023-01-20
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

7. 2022-12-22
   price $23,000 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

8. 2022-12-01
   price $25,000 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

9. 2022-11-19
   price $27,000 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

10. 2022-11-09
    listed $29,000 Active 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Charming, well maintained home with newer roof. This home sits on a spacious lot with plenty of room. Featuring a garage which is great to keep the snow off the car or use as additional living space. Inside features new carpets and a large kitchen and open concept with breakfast bar opening to the living room. Ideal for entertaining. Electric fire place with mantel lends a wonderful focal point and keep you warm in the coming winter months. Offers will be reviewed as presented, this is a cash only sale with proof of funds required.

11. 2021-06-18
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Nicely taken care of manufactured home in the Brook Gardens Community in Hamburg. 2019 hot water tank, new flooring and paint through out the home, spacious layout and a nice master bedroom with large windows in the back letting in tons of natural sunlight! Backyard has a nice firepit for your enjoyment. Lot fee is $675 monthly, there is a $20 park application fee, buyers must be qualified for the park!

12. 2021-06-16
    soldstatus $22,000 Closed Sale or Rented 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Nicely taken care of manufactured home in the Brook Gardens Community in Hamburg. 2019 hot water tank, new flooring and paint through out the home, spacious layout and a nice master bedroom with large windows in the back letting in tons of natural sunlight! Backyard has a nice firepit for your enjoyment. Lot fee is $675 monthly, there is a $20 park application fee, buyers must be qualified for the park!

13. 2021-05-24
    listed $22,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Nicely taken care of manufactured home in the Brook Gardens Community in Hamburg. 2019 hot water tank, new flooring and paint through out the home, spacious layout and a nice master bedroom with large windows in the back letting in tons of natural sunlight! Backyard has a nice firepit for your enjoyment. Lot fee is $675 monthly, there is a $20 park application fee, buyers must be qualified for the park!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$952
• − Property taxes: −$255
• − Insurance: −$85
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − HOA: −$9,360
• − Depreciation: −$495
• Taxable income: $4,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,156
• After-tax cash flow: $3,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Blasdell

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #643
• US rank: #12059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $17,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $20,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-03-03 Sold (MLS) $20,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-02-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-01-20 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2022-12-22 Price Changed $23,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $25,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-19 Price Changed $27,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-09 Listed $29,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-06-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-06-16 Sold (MLS) $22,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-05-24 Listed $22,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $964 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.